Escaping from Bad Decisions presents a modern conceptual and mathematical framework of the decision-making process. By interpreting ordinal utility theory as normative analysis examined in view of rationality, it shows how decision-making under certainty, risk, and uncertainty can be better understood. It provides a critical examination of psychological models in multi-attribute decision-making, and evaluates the constitutive elements of "good" and "bad" decisions. Multi-attribute decision-making is analysed descriptively, based on the psychological model of decision-making and computer simulations of decision strategies. Finally, prescriptive examinations of multi-attribute decision-making are performed, supporting the argument that decision-making from a pluralistic perspective creates results that can help "escape" from bad decisions.
This book will be of particular interest to graduate students and early career researchers in economics, decision-theory, behavioral economics, experimental economics, psychology, cognitive sciences, and decision neurosciences.
1. 1. Introduction: Escaping from bad decisions - p. 1 2. 2. Formal definitions of the worst decisions, best decisions, and bad decisions - p. 17 3. 3. Rational choice, irrational choice, and bad decisions - p. 31 4. 4. Preference ordering and measurement - p. 49 5. 5. Rational preference, irrational preference, and revealed preference - p. 69 6. 6. Multiattribute decision-making, multiobjective optimization, and the additive conjoint system - p. 91 7. 7. A computer simulation of cognitive effort and the accuracy of two-stage decision strategies in a multiattribute decision-making process - p. 113 8. 8. A computer simulation of bad decisions and good decisions: an extended analysis of two-stage decision strategies - p. 141 9. 9. A process tracing study of decision strategies and bad decisions - p. 179 10. 10. A process tracing study of bad decisions: using eye tracking in food decision-making - p. 207 11. 11. Decision strategies and bad group decision-making: a group meeting experiment - p. 225 12. 12. An observational experiment in group decision-making: Can people detect bad group decisions? - p. 247 13. 13. Revisiting the group decision-making experiment - p. 269 14. 14. The detection of bad decisions and a voting experiment - p. 285 15. 15. Situation dependence of group and individual decision making and bad decisions - p. 311 16. 16. The contingent focus model and bad decisions - p. 343 17. 17. An experiment on, and psyschometric analysis of, the contingent focus model - p. 363 18. 18. The contingent focus model and its relation to other theories - p. 391 19. 19. The mental ruler model: Qualitative and mathematical representations of contingent judgment - p. 413 20. 20. How attention arises in and influences decision-making - p. 449 21. 21. Escaping from bad decisions and future perspective - p. 489 22. Author Index - p. 503 23. Subject Index - p. 509
Escaping from Bad Decisions presents a modern conceptual and mathematical framework of the decision-making process. By interpreting ordinal utility theory as normative analysis examined in view of rationality, it shows how decision-making under certainty, risk, and uncertainty can be better understood. It provides a critical examination of psychological models in multi-attribute decision-making, and evaluates the constitutive elements of "good" and "bad" decisions. Multi-attribute decision-making is analysed descriptively, based on the psychological model of decision-making and computer simulations of decision strategies. Finally, prescriptive examinations of multi-attribute decision-making are performed, supporting the argument that decision-making from a pluralistic perspective creates results that can help "escape" from bad decisions.
This book will be of particular interest to graduate students and early career researchers in economics, decision-theory, behavioral economics, experimental economics, psychology, cognitive sciences, and decision neurosciences.
1. 1. Introduction: Escaping from bad decisions - p. 1 2. 2. Formal definitions of the worst decisions, best decisions, and bad decisions - p. 17 3. 3. Rational choice, irrational choice, and bad decisions - p. 31 4. 4. Preference ordering and measurement - p. 49 5. 5. Rational preference, irrational preference, and revealed preference - p. 69 6. 6. Multiattribute decision-making, multiobjective optimization, and the additive conjoint system - p. 91 7. 7. A computer simulation of cognitive effort and the accuracy of two-stage decision strategies in a multiattribute decision-making process - p. 113 8. 8. A computer simulation of bad decisions and good decisions: an extended analysis of two-stage decision strategies - p. 141 9. 9. A process tracing study of decision strategies and bad decisions - p. 179 10. 10. A process tracing study of bad decisions: using eye tracking in food decision-making - p. 207 11. 11. Decision strategies and bad group decision-making: a group meeting experiment - p. 225 12. 12. An observational experiment in group decision-making: Can people detect bad group decisions? - p. 247 13. 13. Revisiting the group decision-making experiment - p. 269 14. 14. The detection of bad decisions and a voting experiment - p. 285 15. 15. Situation dependence of group and individual decision making and bad decisions - p. 311 16. 16. The contingent focus model and bad decisions - p. 343 17. 17. An experiment on, and psyschometric analysis of, the contingent focus model - p. 363 18. 18. The contingent focus model and its relation to other theories - p. 391 19. 19. The mental ruler model: Qualitative and mathematical representations of contingent judgment - p. 413 20. 20. How attention arises in and influences decision-making - p. 449 21. 21. Escaping from bad decisions and future perspective - p. 489 22. Author Index - p. 503 23. Subject Index - p. 509
